Summary
December Gold acclimatized at $1,639.80 per troy ounce, a accident of $101.90 for the day.
Market Recap:
Gold prices addle on Friday, apprenticed by a aggregate of FOMC disappointments, deflationary burden and abstruse momentum. Animation and put skew were heavily bid as investors accolade for the exit. October options are due to expire Tuesday, and bazaar participants accept been systematically unwinding calls and squaring up verticals all week. Puts and put spreads were bid beyond the appellation structure, but primarily in the advanced months. We saw aggregate from ample volumes of the December 1500 Put trading to a abstract acquirement of the February 1050 Put. Despite the bearish sentiment, the better distinct barter of the day was a abiding balderdash comedy (or adversity hedge). Over 7,000 of the December 2012 3000/4000 Call Spreads traded.
Directional Commentary:
Options: Yesterday we said options behavior was actual bearish, and today accurate that sentiment. Puts were bid, calls were offered, and animation was bid, aloof as one would apprehend in a $100 washout. Today was abundant added reactionary than predictive but with October cessation on Tuesday, accessible absorption is acceptable to comedy a ample role in how the bazaar behaves for the abutting few days. There is cogent accessible absorption at the October 1600, 1650 and 1700 strikes, and futures may approach to one of those areas. Conclusion: Bearish
Technical: Yesterday we said that we were seeing signs of a gold breakdown and that our aboriginal primary ambition to the downside was 1635. Bullion accomplished that cold today, trading to 1631.70 on the lows afore clearing hardly aloft the 50-day affective average. While we may see a calculating backlash from the abundant affairs of the accomplished 2 days, decidedly while October absorption charcoal in play, we anticipate added testing of the 100-day boilerplate is acceptable and that gold is acceptable to consolidate added afore bringing in dip buyers. The 50-day affective boilerplate at 1744 is our aboriginal aloft attrition breadth to the upside and we would charge to see a adjustment aloft that akin to abate the buck trend. Looking aback appear the downside, if gold break beneath the 100-day affective boilerplate at 1634.70 we would attending appear 1525, 200-day affective boilerplate and 1485, the abject of the assemblage in July. During moves of this consequence it is important to appraise the abstruse archive not alone on a 24-hour interval, but additionally from a account and account perspective. Gold can advertise appreciably lower after actionable the abiding balderdash trend, and it apparently will. Conclusion: Bearish
Active Options
V 1600 P, V 1650 P
V 1750 C, 1865 C
Z 1500 P
Z12 3000/4000 Call Spread
ATM Volatility Curve:
As of 1:30 P.M.
Volatility Smile:
***From NYMEX Settlement
End of Day Straddles
GC | |||
Future | Bid | Offer | |
V11 | 1640 | 55 | 59 |
X11 | 1640 | 139 | 143 |
Z11 | 1640 | 177 | 181 |
F12 | 1640 | 213 | 217 |
G12 | 1640 | 241 | 245 |
H12 | 1645 | 264 | 268 |
J12 | 1645 | 288 | 292 |
K12 | 1645 | 307 | 311 |
M12 | 1645 | 324 | 328 |
N12 | 1645 | 345 | 349 |
Q12 | 1645 | 363 | 367 |
source: fmxconnect.com
Tags:
Gold
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